The last three weeks of the DII football season have been absolutely bonkers. While many have improved their postseason resumes, several teams are watching their DII football championship hopes fade away. While the selection show (right here on NCAA.com) is this Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, there are still several key matchups that could determine who's in and who's out.
Let's take a look at some of the most important matchups of the weekend.
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The big ones
Slippery Rock at Kutztown, noon ET | WATCH
Slippery Rock isn't so much playing for its playoff lives — even with a loss The Rock is pretty much in — but a win secures the No. 1 seed and the much sought-after first-round bye. However, Kutztown, which can still get in with a loss, solidifies its spot in the bracket with a victory over No. 4 nationally ranked Slippery Rock.
Slippery Rock is the top offense in the PSAC. Quarterback Brayden Long is coming off an absolutely ridiculous week throwing for 400 yards on 85 percent passing without throwing an interception. Those days are commonplace for The Rock, but it will have to face the PSAC's top defense in Kutztown. The Golden Bears defense is allowing just 14.7 points per game, an impressive feat in the offensive-minded PSAC.
A Kutztown, Cal (PA) and Shepherd win will make things very interesting. Kutztown has a win over Shepherd, but a loss to Cal, while Shepherd handed Cal one of its two losses on the season. Super Region One should be wild to the final whistle.
Davenport at Grand Valley State, 1 p.m. ET | WATCH ($)
Simply put, Davenport is playing for its playoff lives. Grand Valley State, on the other hand, is playing for a potential No. 1 seed and first-round bye.
With Davenport's first loss of the season to Ferris State last week, the Panthers fell to No. 8 in Super Region Three, which means they are the first out. A loss to Grand Valley State would be the end of the road in 2023. Unfortunately for the Panthers, the Lakers have a ton of momentum and are arguably the best offense in DII football. They are currently No. 1 in scoring offense (53.3 points per game) and third in yards (496.7) per game. Grand Valley State would need Harding to lose, or at least struggle mightily, against Arkansas Tech, but a win would put the Lakers at 4-1 against ranked teams in 2023 and boost their strength of schedule through the roof. A loss would likely see Davenport leapfrog into the No. 7 spot, but GVSU would still have a good chance to earn a first-round host seed.
Bemidji State at Augustana (SD), 2 p.m. ET | WATCH
Both teams are in the top 15 nationally. Bemidji State is No. 5 in Super Region Four and Augustana (SD) is No. 6. Both teams — along with Minnesota State — are vying for at least a share of the NSIC 2023 title. Yes indeed, this game has a ton of implications.
NSIC foes Minnesota State are right behind both teams and have a big rivalry matchup against Minnesota Duluth. With Angelo State and Wayne State (Neb) — the No. 8 and No. 9 team in Super Region Four — playing very winnable games, a loss by any of these three teams could mean the end to a tournament run.
This should be an intriguing matchup as both teams are quite evenly matched. Augustana and Bemidji State are tied for the best scoring defense in the division, each allowing 16.1 points per game. Bemidji State is one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NSIC, second in interceptions and tied for first in pick sixes. That makes Augustana running back Jarod Epperson — who is the third-best back in the conference with 907 yards rushing and nine touchdowns — all the more important. The Vikings have the best rush defense in the NSIC, so the Beavers' Brandon Alt will have to be at his best under center. As we've learned in the past few seasons, Brandon Alt at his best is one of the best quarterbacks in all DII football. With neither team affording to lose, this should be one of the best games of the day.
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Central Washington at UT Permian Basin, 3 p.m. ET| WATCH ($)
This is essentially the Lone Star Conference championship game and what a game this turned out to be. Both teams are a perfect 7-0 in conference play and currently both have first-round host seeds (Central Washington at No. 3 and UTPB at No. 4) in Super Region Four. With the way that Super Regions can shuffle, it is particularly helpful for Central Washington to lock in a top-four seed and avoid the possibility of being sent out of region in the first round.
The Falcons have been the team to beat in the LSC seemingly from day one. They have the top offense by far in the Lone Star (46.4 points per game, nearly 14 points higher than the next closest team), and also boast the second-best scoring defense. Kenny Hrncir leads the conference in passing and four of his receivers are in the top 10 in the LSC in receiving yards. He has weapons and spreads the ball out.
Central Washington's Tyler Flanagan has been the best back in the LSC this season, averaging 105.9 yards per game (nearly 20 yards better than the next closest running back) and is tied for the conference lead with 11 touchdowns. The Falcons have been stout against the run, so this is the matchup to watch.
Virginia Union vs. Fayetteville State, 3 p.m. ET (played in Salem, VA) | WATCH
The Broncos have taken up residency in the CIAA football championship game, this being their sixth-straight appearance. With Fayetteville State at No. 6 and Virginia Union at No. 7, it is highly likely that the winner of this game is in, and the loser is home for the holidays.
The Panthers game plan is pretty easy: Virginia Union wins games on the ground. Jada Byers (118.8 yards per game and 13 touchdowns) leads the conference's best rushing attack, but defensively, this team dominates against the run, holding opponents to 37.4 yards per game. That is quite the advantage for the Panthers. Fayetteville State will hope its sack-happy defense can get into the backfield and disrupt the Panthers' tempo, but that Virginia Union line is something to marvel. That said, both of these teams have had their fair share of close games this season, so this could very well be another one.
Consider these DII football playoff games
Frostburg State at Fairmont State. Why it matters: Fairmont State comes in at No. 8 and Frostburg State comes in at No. 9. We know one of No. 4 Cal (PA) or No. 7 East Stroudsburg are guaranteed to lose (they play each other), and should it be East Stroudsburg, that likely opens the door for the victor of this game to head to the postseason.
Minnesota Duluth at Minnesota State. Why it matters: The Bulldogs are likely not going to have a chance at the DII football championship bracket (a lot would have to go their way), but they would love to play spoiler to their in-state rivals. Minnesota State has won six of the last seven, so it could be a long day for Duluth.
Bentley at New Haven. Why it matters: New Haven is clinging to a spot in Super Region One. Beating a 7-3 Bentley team could improve its SOS and get them in if a few other things go the Chargers' way.
Limestone at Emory & Henry. Why it matters: After an 0-2 start, it's hard to imagine that the Saints are in the position to make the playoffs, but here we are as they sit at No. 8. The Wasps can put up some points, but Limestone should win. If quarterback Dustin Noller, running back Tre Stewart and wide receiver Jelani Baker get into the postseason, the Saints' offense can wreak havoc.
Cal (PA) at East Stroudsburg. Why it matters: The Warriors are coming off a loss to Shepherd and sit at No. 7 in Super Region One. Cal (PA) is sitting pretty in a host seed at No. 4. With Shepherd looking to pounce and playing 2-7 Mercyhurst in a very winnable matchup, the loser of this contest may not hear their name called Sunday night.
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Henderson State at Ouachita Baptist. Why it matters: Well, first of all, the Battle of the Ravine is one of the most unique rivalries in all of sports. Secondly, Ouachita Baptist is holding on tight to a postseason berth at No. 6, and its cross-street rivals would love nothing more than to end the Tigers' season.
One for the road
Clarion at West Chester. Why it matters: Okay, this one has nothing to do with the Super Region One rankings. Bill Zwaan, the Golden Rams' head coach of the last 21 years, announced he will retire at the end of the season. Zwaan enters the game 162-76 in his career at West Chester and will walk away as one of the best to do it in PSAC history.
